Because the markets on the exchanges generally base themselves on the tour surface hold average when moving to a service hold or break, finding players — especially those that the market may not necessarily expect — who should struggle to hold serve is a valuable asset. Once there is a break of serve, prices will start to deviate strongly from the starting price. This has a more pronounced effect in ATP matches due to the men holding serve more hence a break is a rarer commodity but still has a strong influence in WTA matches.
The next step at this point would be to assess whether there is any viability in laying the player a break up in the set. At this point, unless the player who is a break up was a fairly strong underdog to win the match before it started, the player a break up will be trading odds-on 1. Laying players at 1. The way I feel is best to assess whether the player a break up can be laid is to see the break lead defence and break recovery stats available via both the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheets and also via the new Tier Two Daily Spreadsheets.
By this I mean the set went back on serve from those points it does not take into account what happened after the set went back on serve. In this match-up, the following break-back stats apply Li gave up a break lead slightly more, but compensated that by recovering more break deficits. By this I mean that I will look at keeping my position until either the player a break up gets broken I can then hedge for profit or the end of the set is reached I can then hedge for a loss.
All these stats are available in the new Tier Two Daily Spreadsheets. My next job is to illustrate how the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet can be used to alter projected holds from early and late service game stats, as well as taking positions at the end of sets based on player tendencies. With trading the player a break up already covered, the main way of using these early and late service game stats is to use adjustments to the projected hold figures when the set is on serve. In the hypothetical match-up between Azarenka and Li, we have the following figures for the two players This deviation is definitely not enough to want to alter our trading plan in any way for this match-up, but there are many cases where it would.
This situation means that the starting price on a player will significantly shorten if they win the first set, somewhat depending on how dominant they are in the process of winning that set. There is a more detailed explanation of this in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook. This may come as a surprise to some readers, who may assume that the WTA is very unpredictable — and it often is.
However, much of this unpredictability takes the form of in-set movements as opposed to anything else. A basic way of assessing that viability is to look at whether the player a set up has a lower win percentage in the second set than their average, and whether the player a set down has a higher win percentage in the second set than their average.
There are far more advanced ways of doing it, such as using triggers based on first set stats which is something I have spent a lot of time researching , but for this article I want to concentrate on the set percentages. These percentages can hugely fluctuate from player to player.
My recent article on Petra Kvitova showed that the Czech world number six won In this match-up between Azarenka and Li, the stats were as follows Her second set win percentage was especially impressive, with it being 5. Li had the opposite problem, starting fast — winning This was 3. However, should Li take the first set, laying her would be much more viable, based on the above stats.
With Li starting the hypothetical match-up at around 2. Roughly speaking, if we had laid Li at 1. This would be a huge tick gain. There are other ways of approaching the trade. As mentioned above, at the end of the second set, prices are generally not hugely dissimilar to starting prices.
Hopefully by now you have a good idea of how to create a tennis trading script based on statistics, and also a better idea of how the stats in the Ultimate In-Play Spreadsheet can help you in your trading. Powered By Google Sites. Product Testimonials. Article - Top Seeds in s. Article - Americans Abroad - Part One.
Article - Americans Abroad - Part Two. Article - Americans Abroad - Part Three. Article - South Americans in European Challengers. Sela vs Arguello - Perfect Market Manipulation? Rafael Nadal - A problem of bad variance? Analysis of Heavy Favourites in Using Historical Scenarios in Trading. Players to Watch - Decliners from going into Which players thrive or deteriorate in long Grand Slam matches?
Is the Davis Cup good for comebacks? Analysis - Laying the player a break up in the first set. Are top WTA players 'tanking' more? Trading The Second Set. The Cincinnati Masters takes place from August with Novak Djokovic and Victoria Azarenka attempting to defend their titles as the tournament returns to its traditional home of Mason, Ohio.
Will Novak Djokovic finally be able to win Olympic gold when the postponed Tokyo Olympics tennis happens in ? The Mutua Madrid Open, the biggest clay-court tournament outside of Roland Garros, returns in as a two-week event to be played from 27 April-9 May. Petersburg Open St.
There are many reasons for this, including an increased popularity of the sport, increased money and exposure afforded to the grand slam events and an era where 3 of the best players to ever play the game are currently active.
However, there is no doubt that the increasingly popular market of tennis betting has grown due to the arrival of online sports gambling and with it, the opportunity to bet in-play. Here are some of the most popular betting types of bet in the tennis betting market:. Due to the popularity of tennis betting and the fierce competition between online sports bookmakers, punters can take advantage of some great bet offers — especially new customer bonuses.
We regularly update our betting offers page with the latest sportsbook offers for new customers. Tennis betting allows punters to take advantage of the stop-start nature of the game to open up a variety of specific betting markets that make the sport both unique and attractive for sports betting. Another benefit of in-play tennis betting is that punters can wager on outcomes and accumulate winnings extremely quickly, especially when betting on specific points as bets can be settled in under a minute!
Tennis live streaming has also improved the in-play betting experience for punters, who can now immerse themselves in the action better than ever thanks to some of the larger online betting sites who offer a wide variety of tennis betting live streams across the ATP World Tour, WTA Tour, the ATP challenger tour and more. Unlike some online tennis tipsters, our tennis betting tips and predictions are not hidden behind a pay-wall. Our tips have always been available to our readers for no charge, so if you are planning on placing a bet on an upcoming game, why not seek out betting advice without paying a fee?
After all, you could pay another online tipster and end up spending money getting a losing tip that results in you losing more money! While we obviously cannot promise a winning bet every time, all of our tennis betting tips are shared in good faith so you can bet in confidence with us.
Due to the rising popularity of tennis betting, especially live in-play tennis betting, most bookmakers provide great coverage of the betting market. The best bookmakers for tennis betting offer comprehensive live streaming options such as Coral and Bet Our expert betting tips are not just confined to tennis, with Bettingpro.
Our writers have years of experience behind them and will do their absolute best to boost your bank accounts with winning tips.
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Analysis - Laying the Underdog in Set Two. Part Two. Making the step up - An assessment of young Challenger Tour Players. Scouting Report - Annika Beck. Opponent Dossier - Radek Stepanek. Opposing Serena Williams in Roger Federer - Does he have an issue against elite opponents?
Profiling Players in the WTA. The Effect of Variance? Part One - Improvers in The curious case of Agnieszka Radwanska. Grand Slam Winner Requirements. Leaks and Bad Decisions. Results Orientated Decisions. Elo Style Models - My Thoughts.
The Commentators Curse. Claudio Ranieri and the Question of Variance. T20 Franchises With Much to Learn. Ethics and Morals in the Gambling World. Wild Cards, Withdrawals and Lucky Losers. Is there a Less Meritocratic Sport than Cricket? About TennisRatings. Skype: TennisRatings. Events in WTA Wuhan this week are the inspiration for this article, with the markets panicking in the extreme when a big underdog was causing a top ten player problems We can relate the panic selling concept to the Tennis markets.
It is my belief that many traders backed the Dane in-play when a break down in set one, with a view to building a position to trade out from, expecting the higher ranked player to break-back and level the set. Personally I have no problem with these trades at all, and believe them to offer positive long-term expected value based on my break-back stats.
What I have more of a problem with, from an EV basis, is how traders panicked and dumped Wozniacki when she failed to break, and at the points early in the second set that she struggled. Bacsinszky got to and deuce in several of Wozniacki's early service games, and we could see that the market was losing belief in Wozniacki.
This quote perfectly illustrates the situation. I can see it now. I didn't have my Twitter timeline on but it's 1. Set 1 - 'OMG Wozniacki is losing to an unknown, let's back her'. When she lost the set, these people face a problem that they are likely not to have evaluated in advance.
Do they hold or do they dump? Holding involves keeping faith in the more illustrious player to turn the match around, whilst dumping involves taking a hedged loss on the market and exiting their position. The problem many traders face is they probably don't actually know which approach is correct in any situation!
How many people in the market had an advance plan - a trading script - worked out so that they knew how to approach every match situation before it occurred? How many people in the market have profiled this situation in these type of matches in advance so that they know how often various scenarios develop? There in a nutshell is one way to trade tennis successfully.
If you know in advance how likely certain situations are to develop from others, then we can apply those numbers to the market and make long term, positive expectation, decisions, based on that information. The problem is there that this isn't easy, and requires hard work. But it is rewarding if you put the effort in.
I can go to my database and filter scenarios such as the following, for analysis My database showed the following results Actually this figure should be slightly higher, as there were also some examples were the pre-match underdog staved off multiple break points, from scores like or either when the set was on serve, or from a set and break up, and this would have fairly large positive price movement for the pre-match favourite.
Cibulkova took the first set , and led in set 2. In this next game, Cibulkova held despite going and it is highly likely that traders who had held their position, and averaged down their position a set and break down would have been able to scratch at least, if not exit for slight profit at However, these weren't quantified and for purposes of analysis I'll use the No doubt the U.
Open surface favors a big server like Roddick, but as we have seen on so many occasions, a big serve is not enough to win tournaments and Grand Slams -- just ask Andy. It's always a mistake to go against Federer in a Grand Slam but that is what I am going to do.
My gut tells me that Federer will win his third consecutive Grand Slam in All of a sudden it's summer in the East Coast and Murray decided as part of his training regimen, and to help him get over a bitter loss to Roddick in the Wimbledon semi-finals, to spend two weeks in Florida getting in shape for the heat. It paid off handsomely for Murray at the Rogers Cup and should bring him much-needed momentum, and perhaps his first Grand Slam title, as he heads to the U. The Williams sisters have long been known as the "Slam Sisters" due to their affinity for playing mostly Grand Slams with a few other tournaments on the side.
This has been especially true for Serena this year. The WTA No. Compare that to the fact that Serena has not made it out of the quarterfinals in any other tournament this year, and frequently has lost in the first and second rounds. Dinara Safina is currently the world's No. Open this year. Safina, though, has made the finals in eight of 14 tourneys in so she'll go deep but don't expect her to win this Slam either. In other women's tennis news, former WTA No. You have to go back to the pre-slam era to and R.
Chambers to find the next mother to win a major title, Wimbledon.
Bouchard also held, but it was the last, as Li served out the set on her first set point. In comparison to the excitement of the second set of the first semi, the second semi was a very one-sided affair from beginning to end.
From the outset the Pole looked lethargic and flat, while the Slovak was bursting out of her skin with energy and commitment. Cibulkova broke in the very first game and led before Radwanska got a game. Cibulkova held after saving 5 break points and went on to take the set in just 37 minutes. In the second set the Slovak ran up a lead before the Pole took two games in a row.
Cibulkova held, then broke Radwanska to love to take the set and book her first Slam final appearance. You must be logged in to post a comment. British No. You Love Tennis Right Join the Stevegtennis. Just enter your email below for Tennis news updates once a week. Special offers on tennis gear. This marks the fifth time these two athletes meet on the professional tour.
The Chinese No. She only dropped one set in six matches en route to the final, against Safarova in the third round, where she needed to save a match point before recovering to win the match. She has been on a dominant streak ever since, losing a total of twelve games in her following three matches. The year-old has worked incredibly hard to remain this competitive amongst the top 10 players. She is also attempting to play a much more serve and volley oriented approach, as she comes to the net with more frequency on her serve.
This is not the first time Li has reached this stage of the tournament in Melbourne. This is arguably her best chance to finally win that elusive Grand Slam title in Australia. While her opposition was certainly amongst the elite competitors on the WTA tour, her final opponent, Li Na, is arguably the toughest obstacle in her path. The head-to-head record between the two competitors stands at , favouring Li Na. Cibulkova has only ever taken the Chinese star to a third set one one previous occasion, back in You must be logged in to post a comment.
Stanislas Wawrinka is a happy man.
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig. Milan vs Juventus. RB Leipzig vs Dortmund. Real Madrid vs Barcelona H2H. Bayern Munich vs B. Welcome to the new matchstat. Bayern Munich vs Schalke. Please note: This site requires. Barcelona vs Man City H2H. Real Madrid vs Atl.[Archive] Page 34 Talk tennis handicapping, betting, picks, matchups, player odds +/ at Bovada · Berdych/Wawrinka · Cibulkova vs Li Na - In Game. Cibulkova to win. Caroline Wozniacki vs Li Na Wozniacki is a great retriever and covers a lot of ground. She is vulnerable to power and only has one weapon of. Oct 16, - No sign up required for our free AFL tips, betting advice and latest odds. Our expert Aga Radwanska vs Cibulkova! #WTA 5, Likes, 86 Comments - WTA (@wta) on Instagram: “Tap twice to wish Li Na a Happy Birthday!