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The pre-season prediction chat is one of my favourite times of the season and in these current football-free times, I wanted to create a bit of that buzz that usually gets many of us revved up. Or at least create a few moments of distraction from the current realities of our strange world. Where does the value lie? What price has got your punting juices flowing? Tweet me your staking plans - maximum four selections and you don't have to include every market.
I'll review the most popular selections and give a few shout-outs in next week's column. My calculations deem that there is a 96 per cent chance that either Liverpool or Manchester City will win the Premier League if it was to restart from scratch. The 29 per cent swing in favour of Liverpool in the market with my pricing is based on their obvious ruthlessness at winning matches, reliability and defensive brilliance. Also, you have to factor in the current question marks surrounding Pep Guardiola and some of City's key players due to the potential European ban.
City do however remain a seriously frightening team, packed full of match winners. Interestingly, using Opta's xG expected goals data they sit top of the Premier League when analysing all the metrics - above Liverpool! And although I'd favour them to beat Liverpool over 90 minutes at a neutral ground, Liverpool remain an all-round stronger team when it comes to long-term performance in a league situation.
They have to be favourites. It's admittedly tough to avoid a 'recency bias' when a quick glance at the current league table shows such a significant gap between the two sides, but City's shot data is still at a different level this season and the absence of Aymeric Laporte has had a serious impact on their defensive solidity. I'd be much closer these two in the market, maybe even a classic pick 'em, so I'd back City at the prices on offer.
With Liverpool and Manchester City near certainties to finish top four, this market is a race for the two other spots, leaving a very congested and competitive race involving seven realistic candidates. Sorry, Sheffield United fans. I've just about favoured Manchester United to head the market due to their improving characteristics.
Since losing to Burnley in January, United have gone unbeaten in five matches, including beating Manchester City , and have conceded just one goal along that way. The introduction of Bruno Fernandes and potential return of Paul Pogba also were factored into their price.
The graph below shows the teams odds at the start of the season compared to my odds, converted to a percentage to show the difference. The big take out from this has to be the rapid decline of Tottenham and to a lesser extent Arsenal. Sounds about right though, doesn't it? When assessing the relegation picture, it certainly seems the current Premier League table doesn't lie as the three teams filling the relegation spots are the top three in the market.
Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth would be the most likely candidates but I'm sure they'd be plenty of punters out there willing to look elsewhere at bigger prices as all three of those teams have shown at various points that they carry Premier League quality within their ranks.
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Result expected soon Counting has finished and the result is expected imminently. Sources do not deny 10, majority claim Sources have not denied a claim Labour could be heading for a thumping 10, majority, defying all expectations.
The result could be just an hour away. The Looneys have arrived! At last, some excitement! A great cheer has gone up in the council hall. Labour set for thundering majority? Labour officials have not yet been able to confirm the claim to Mirror Online. But it would be astonishing if true. Briefings earlier today suggested it could dip below 1, Turnout is Stage one verification has been completed. That means the votes can be counted fully.
Labour say they are 'confident of victory' Labour are now briefing us that they are confident of victory. Nigel Farage's unusual day of race rows Nigel Farage had a day of unusual race rows - to say the least. Is Ukip dreaming of Polls closed at 10pm and the result is expected between 1am and 2am.
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