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He observed that "a very small percentage change could see FF going as low as 62 seats" or could foil Kenny's chances. A survey of the odds Yates is offering in the 43 constituencies indicates that election is wide open. Yates expects FF to win 68 seats. When it comes to the PDs, in Mary Harney may have put? On this occasion, Yates believes? However, as of now, even with Yates's expected 'Green tide', the alternative Rainbow of FG 46 , Labour 21 and the Greens 11 will come up just short of the required number of seats.
In Yates's view, this uncertain picture means there will be two contests. There will be the election but "the really important business, however, will be the horse-trading involving the FF and FG Labour blocks". However, in spite of the prediction which suggests that neither alternatives will have a sustainable majority, Yates does not believe we will have a hung Dail.
Instead, should Labour not go into Coalition with FF, he believes we will have "a rearranged Dail" where SF, who are expected to win nine seats, will play a critical role. Yates rejected the suggestion that his figures were in any way influenced by his FG past and said he had "no political or hidden agenda except to make a fortune". The former FG minister noted "there's money involved here" and claimed "I've gone to time and expense to get the FF and FG view, the lot. We have top insiders from FF and FG, internal polls, the lot and we have it in every constituency".
Yates also noted a series of bets on Colm O'Gorman, the PD outsider in Wexford, meant that his bookies has "liabilities of half a million Euros on that alone". Significantly, on Friday the odds released by Paddy Power almost mirrored Yates's view. These favoured FF to win between 64 and 67 seats while FG are expected to win between 45 and Now thats what you call soft support.
Joined Aug 23, Messages 6, Not sure about that blinding, it might be different this time. Certainly S. F need to get their vote out , but I reckon conditions for that are better now in then at any time in the past. Sinn Fein last three elections in the South have been disastrous. None of these not that long ago. The establishment now want people to vote for Sinn fein or even the Greens as the Protest Vote.
They are worried that a Party that is truly against the Tweedle Three and their pretty much identical policies might get a foothold. There is certainly opening for a party that is against continuing Mass Immigration after having 20 years of it. If the Irish people do not vote for change on this then its going to continue. A country that cannot house the people here already and provide a health service for them should not be continuing mass immigration.
Its time to have 10 years of No Mass Immigration and only the most highly skilled immigration that we cannot produce ourselves this would not be a high number. SuirView Well-known member. Joined Mar 29, Messages 16, Breanainn Well-known member. Joined Aug 23, Messages 2, RetiredProvo Well-known member. Joined Apr 27, Messages I'd say you would get decent enough odds on Rose Conway-Walsh taking last seat in Mayo after a long, long recount. RetiredProvo said:. Joined May 19, Messages 3.
Don't know what you think of Ivan Yeats' predictions but he's done 23 so far and has FG losing a seat in 10 of them. Joined Jul 12, Messages 3, Some candidates arnt even quoted by PP, dough to be made. Joined Sep 29, Messages FF could return to their historic 3 in this constituency provided Cowen shares Offaly fairly with Ormond. Joined Feb 10, Messages 11, You must log in or register to reply here.
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